Modeling Flood Susceptibility in Rwanda Using an AI-Enabled Risk Mapping Tool

Abstract

This study presents the development of a Python-based flood-susceptibility risk-mapping tool, implemented in Jupyter Notebook, applied to Rwanda. A Flood Susceptibility Index (FSI) was developed by integrating 20 causal factors associated with flood occurrences, including topographic, hydrological, geological, and anthropogenic variables. Logistic regression, and Variance Inflation Factor were implemented in Python using libraries such as Numpy, Arcpy, traceback, scipy, Pandas, Seaborn, and statsmodel to assign weights to each factor, and to address multicollinearity. The model was validated against flood extent data derived from Sentinel-1 satellite imagery for the major historical flood event that occurred from 2014 to 2024, ensuring spatial consistency and predictive reliability. To project future flood susceptibility for 2030, precipitation data from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5A, Medium Resolution (IPSL-CM5A-MR) climate model under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario were utilized. The resulting FSI was classified into five susceptibility levels, from very low to very high, and visualized using Python’s geospatial and plotting tools within Jupyter Notebook in ArcGIS Pro 3.5. It indicates that areas with high amounts of rainfall, and proximity to wetlands and rivers reveal the highest flood risk. The automated and reproducible approach offered by Python enhances transparency and scalability, providing a decision-support tool for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation planning in Rwanda.