Mitigating the Next Pandemic: An Assessment of Macroeconomic Resilience and Social Vulnerability in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT Mindful of the dismal macroeconomic position and welfare performance of most countries in the Sub‐Saharan African (SSA) region, this study sets out to investigate the nexus between macroeconomic resilience and social vulnerability in the wake of the COVID‐19‐induced global economic meltdown. The study adopted a panel data analysis technique via the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) approach alongside other econometric tests. The study revealed that fiscal deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio (FDGDP), external debt to GDP ratio (EDGDP), discomfort index (DISCO) (the sum of inflation and unemployment rates), governance index (GOVN) and exchange rate (EXCR) significantly impact on the socially vulnerable and constitute a serious impediment to the ability of SSA economies to mobilize the needed resources to offset any external shock. The novelty of this study rests on its inventive endeavour to empirically assess the nexus between macroeconomic resilience and social vulnerability. The focus on SSA makes it more compelling given the dismal macroeconomic position and welfare performance of SSA, which poses a possible threat for the prospects for the attainment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the region by 2030.