Mitigating the macroeconomic impact of severe natural disasters in Africa: policy synergies

Abstract

This study evaluates the economic impact of severe natural disasters in Africa using the generalised synthetic control method. In other words, it assesses how gross domestic product (GDP) would have been affected, had severe natural disasters not occurred. Moreover, it explores the determinants of the destructiveness of the impact of natural disasters, focusing on the role played by capital. We find that severe natural disasters induce a significant and continuous reduction of GDP many years after the event. Indeed, economic losses caused by disasters depend on the level of capital (human capital, employment and capital stock) and aspects of governance quality (political stability and absence of violence). In other words, negative synergies are apparent because while capital stock, employment and human capital unconditionally reduce the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters, the corresponding conditional or interactive effects with political stability are also negative. Policy implications are discussed.