article · International Economic Journal
An empirical examination of 33 African countries using cross-sectional data from 2010 reveals the key drivers and developmental outcomes associated with the middle class. Evaluating multiple definitions, ranging from floating populations to upper-middle-income brackets, the analysis shows that higher gross domestic product per capita and education consistently expand the middle class. Conversely, ethnic fragmentation, general political stability, and aspects of economic vulnerability display negative relationships, whereas openness, democracy, and informal sector size show positive correlations. Regarding broader outcomes, the expansion of the middle class directly supports the accumulation of infrastructure and human capital. Although its short-term impact on democracy and political stability is negligible, a growing middle class positively influences institutional governance and societal modernisation across the continent.
Understanding the dynamics of the middle class is essential for translating general economic growth into widespread societal development. Clarifying which factors support this demographic enables development agencies, economists, and policymakers to design targeted measures that stimulate infrastructure investment, improve public governance, and enhance human capital across diverse African economies.
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This study complements the inclusive growth literature by examining the determinants and consequences of the middle class in a continent where economic growth has been relatively high. The empirical evidence is based on a sample of 33 African countries for a 2010 cross-sectional study. Ordinary least squares, two-stage-least squares, three-stage-least squares and seemingly unrelated regressions estimation techniques are employed to regress a plethora of middle class indicators, notably, the: floating, middle-class with floating, middle-class without floating, lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income categories. Results can be classified into two main strands. First, results on determinants broadly show that GDP per capita and education positively affect all middle class dependent variables. However, we establish a negative nexus for the effect of ethnic fragmentation, political stability in general and partially for economic vulnerability. Simple positive correlations have been observed for: the size of the informal sector, openness and democracy. Second, on the consequences, the middle class enables the accumulation of human and infrastructural capital, while its effect is null on political stability and democracy in the short run but positive for governance and modernisation. Policy implications are discussed.
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DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2016.1204340
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