Mathematical modeling and optimal control strategy for the monkeypox epidemic

Abstract

In this study, we propose a discrete time mathematical model (SEIQR) that describes the dynamics of monkeypox within a human population. The studied population is divided into five compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), quarantined (Q), and recovered (R). Also, we propose an optimal strategy to fight against the spread of this epidemic. In this sense we use three controls which represent: 1) the awarness of vulnerable people through the media, civil society and education; 2) the quarantine of infected persons at home or, if required, in hospital; 3) encouraging of vaccination of susceptible persons. To characterize these optimal controls, we apply the Pontryagin's maximum principle. The optimality system is solved numerically using Matlab. Therefore, the obtained results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed optimization approach.