Mapping the Pulse of Violence: Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Insecurity in Nigeria

Abstract

<title>Abstract</title> This study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of insecurity in Nigeria between 2020 and 2025 using event-level data drawn from authoritative and media sources. Integrating temporal trend analysis with multiscalar spatial assessment, the study shows that insecurity has intensified unevenly, with human cost rising faster than incident frequency. Violence is highly concentrated in a limited number of Local Government Areas, forming persistent hotspot corridors across the North West, North East, and North Central zones. Temporally, insecurity follows clear seasonal patterns, with mid-year lethality peaks and year-end surges in abductions. By disaggregating human cost into fatalities, injuries, and abductions, the study reveals a structural shift toward higher-impact violence, underscoring the need for spatially targeted and temporally calibrated security interventions.