Machine Learning-Based Groundwater Level Forecasting in a Semi-Arid Agricultural Area: Insights from SHAP, PELT, and Mann–Kendall Analyses in the Saïss Basin, Morocco

Abstract

This study proposes an innovative framework that combines hydroclimatic and agro-environmental predictors, including nitrate concentration and NDVI, with climatic factors such as Rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration to forecast piezometric level variations in the Saïss Basin, Morocco. Eight Machine Learning (ML) models were benchmarked, and feature importance was assessed using Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to ensure model transparency and interpretability. In parallel, the PELT algorithm was applied to detect structural change points, while Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall test were used to quantify long-term trends. The Extra Trees (ET) model achieved the best performance (R2 = 0.92), with Rainfall emerging as the most influential predictor, followed by nitrate concentration, confirming the added value of hydrochemical indicators for groundwater forecasting. Change-point analysis revealed significant declines during the 1980s and 1990s, followed by lower-amplitude fluctuations since the late 2000s. Projections toward 2050 suggest partial stabilization in the central part of the basin under favorable recharge conditions, whereas persistent declines are expected to continue in peripheral areas subjected to sustained groundwater abstraction pressure. These findings provide a robust and transferable decision-support tool for the sustainable management of groundwater resources in semi-arid agricultural area.