Machine and deep learning approaches for forecasting electricity price and energy load assessment on real datasets

Abstract

This article aims to propose short-term forecasting for a combined model of the hourly electricity price and the hourly load. Where both the independent system operators and the market participants must deal with the uncertainty and volatility of the day-ahead electricity price. Therefore, an accurate prediction model has been needed for a combined short-term forecasting model for both the hourly electricity price and the hourly load in the deregulated market. To get a better prediction, real-time data for the day-ahead electricity price and the hourly load are provided from the ISO New England Control Area (ISO-NE-CA) market. This study presents the combined model based on four featured machine and deep learning algorithms: Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, Long Short-Term Memory, and Gated Recurrent Units. The results are obtained from two scenarios, In the first scenario, the data has been trained and tested without depending on other factors such as temperatures and calendar. In the second scenario, the data has been trained and tested depending on the previously mentioned factors. The obtained results from the four algorithms have been compared to show their performance and their efficiency in the values of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The four featured algorithms prove their good performance with less error in the forecasting model.