article · Discover Applied Sciences
This study analysed long-term trends and projected future climate variability for the Borkena River catchment in Ethiopia's Awash Basin. Using a multi-temporal approach, linear regression, and the Mann–Kendall test, researchers assessed changes in hydrological flux components for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. They employed three regional climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios. The projections indicate that mean annual maximum temperatures are expected to rise by 0.56 °C and minimum temperatures by 0.31 °C. Mean annual rainfall is also projected to increase, alongside significant monthly and seasonal shifts in rainfall patterns. Overall, the findings suggest an increased risk of more severe flood events in the area.
Understanding future climate trends, particularly changes in temperature and rainfall, is crucial for regions like the Borkena River catchment. These projections help communities and authorities prepare for potential hydrological shifts, such as increased flood risks, enabling better planning for water resource management and disaster mitigation.
This research provides critical climate projection data that could inform strategic planning for water resource management, infrastructure development, and disaster preparedness in the Borkena River catchment. Potential users include regional planning authorities, water management organisations, and agricultural bodies. This is early-stage research, offering foundational insights rather than a direct commercial product or service.
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Trend analysis of climate variables, such as precipitation and temperature, provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, we quantified and assessed the changes in different hydrological flux components for the Borkena River catchment in the Awash Basin of Ethiopia during the 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2040–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080) future periods. To accomplish this, we utilized a multi-temporal approach based on linear regression and the Mann–Kendall test. We used three different regional climate Models (MIROC-MIROC5, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, and SPL-IPSL-CM5A-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As a result, the GCM projections indicated that the mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.56 °C and 0.31 °C, respectively, while the mean annual rainfall has been projected to increase in the coming decades. The study also revealed considerable average monthly and seasonal changes in rainfall magnitude and direction. In general, from a hydro-climatic perspective, the outcomes suggest that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe flood events.
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DOI: 10.1007/s42452-025-07439-7
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