Long-term least-cost geospatial electrification planning to bridge the electricity access gap: the case of Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract Expanding electricity access cost-effectively requires strategies that account for spatial heterogeneity in demand, resource availability, and proximity to infrastructure. However, many existing studies oversimplify electrification planning by applying binary rural–urban categorizations and neglecting productive and institutional electricity loads. This study developed a long-term electrification plan at the settlement level, utilizing the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool to identify the least-cost solutions among grid extension, mini-grids (MGs), and standalone photovoltaic solar (SA PV) systems. Settlements were delineated by aggregating the high-resolution settlement layer (∼30 m resolution) and then enriched it with georeferenced resource data (solar irradiation, wind speeds, hydropower potential) and existing grid networks. Using a myopic optimization approach across three distinct periods (2021–2030, 2030–2040, and 2040–2050), the study analyzed multiple scenarios developed by combining varying electricity demand and grid generation costs. Under a low grid generation cost scenario, grid extension is the least-cost option for more than 82% of the population by 2030, though its share declines slightly in later periods. Under a high grid generation cost scenario, MGs become competitive for about 26% of the population by 2050. SA PV systems emerge as the least-cost option for over 16% of the population in both scenarios by 2030 but become less competitive in later periods. The findings emphasize the need for integrated national planning that combines grid expansion with MG deployment, while gradually phasing out SA PV systems. This approach accelerates the deployment of solutions tailored to local contexts, directly contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 7.