Long-Term Dew Analysis Through Multifractal Formalism and Hurst Exponent Under African Climate Conditions

Abstract

Dew constitutes a component of the near-surface water balance, but its large-scale fractal dynamical properties remain poorly documented across Africa. This study estimates dew amounts and investigates their fractal and multifractal behavior under African climatic conditions using gridded ERA5 datasets from 1993 to 2022. The Rescaled-Range (R/S) method, Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA), and the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN) algorithm are used. Hurst exponent (Hu) and the multifractal spectrum width (ω) are evaluated at daily and monthly scales over the full period and two sub-periods (1993–2007 and 2008–2022). The results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in dew distribution. Daily mean amounts range between 0 and 0.18 mm, corresponding to annual accumulations reaching up to ~85 mm·yr−1 in humid coastal, equatorial, and sub-equatorial regions, while remaining below 0.5 mm·yr−1 in hyper-arid deserts. The continental mean annual amount is ~35.5 mm·yr−1. The Hurst exponent exhibits values between zero and one, indicating region-dependent persistent and anti-persistent behaviors. This suggests that prediction schemes based on preceding values may be suitable for dew time series prediction in African regions exhibiting persistent characteristics. The multifractal spectrum width (ω), reaching values of up to 10, highlights strong scaling heterogeneity, particularly at the monthly timescale. These findings indicate that African dew dynamics exhibit significant long-range dependence and multifractal variability, providing new insights into the intrinsic temporal structure of dew and into appropriate approaches for its forecasting.