Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Bokoya Massif, Northern Morocco: A geospatial and multi-factor analysis using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

Abstract

Landslide susceptibility mapping is a fundamental tool in natural hazard assessment and risk mitigation, especially in tectonically active regions. This research presents the first detailed landslide susceptibility map for the Bokoya Massif (Al-Hoceima province, Morocco), addressing a critical gap in regional hazard assessment. The study employs the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to identify landslide-prone areas based on nine conditioning factors: lithology, slope, precipitation, land use, proximity to hydrographic networks, road infrastructure, structural lineaments, seismic records, and slope orientation. Approximately 17% of the territory (54.8 km²) was classified as high to very high susceptibility zones, with notable areas including the northern slopes and regions near major watercourses, while moderate susceptibility covered 46.4% of the area (151.2 km²). The remaining areas exhibited low to very low susceptibility, highlighting spatial variability across the massif. Field surveys were conducted to validate the susceptibility map, and model validation was supported by historical landslide inventory data and area under the curve (AUC) analysis, achieving an accuracy of 80.7%. The resultant map provides local authorities with a scientifically grounded tool for spatial planning and risk management. This framework demonstrates the value of AHP in geohazard studies, offering an interpretable and adaptable approach in data-scarce environments. It establishes a foundation for future geohazard studies in similar geological settings and emphasizes the need for periodic updates following seismic events or anthropogenic changes. Overall, the study supports informed decision-making and sustainable development in landslide-prone Mediterranean regions.