Is governance universally ‘green’? Short- and long-run effects of institutional quality on CO₂ emissions and intensity in Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of national governance frameworks on environmental performance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) from 2010 to 2023. Motivated by SDG 13, the COP28–COP29 agendas and evidence linking environmental outcomes to institutional maturity, this study assesses CO₂ emissions and intensity to evaluate emission pressures and decarbonization performance. This analysis is pertinent because of governance reforms, climate finance implementation and ongoing emissions growth in developing regions. Utilizing a panel of 58 countries, this study employs a dynamic empirical framework that incorporates cross-sectional dependence (CSD) tests, unit root analysis and PMG-ARDL estimations to assess the effects of governance. The results indicate that governance improvements lead to significant long-term emission reductions, whereas short-term effects vary due to adjustment costs. These findings are consistent with evidence from advanced economies but differ in scale and timing, particularly for fossil-fuel-dependent MENA countries. Governance reforms have stronger environmental benefits in SSA, whereas MENA experiences weaker or delayed effects. The study illustrates that governance acts as a conditional green mechanism, contingent on institutional maturity and structural factors. Policy implications suggest implementing region-specific reforms that enhance enforcement, support the clean energy transition and align with decarbonization goals. This study provides policy-relevant evidence on the influence of national governance frameworks on environmental performance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) from 2010 to 2023. Utilizing dynamic panel methods, the research demonstrates that enhanced governance leads to a reduction in emissions over the long term, while short-term effects are characterized by transitional frictions. Notably, the impacts are heterogeneous: the benefits are more pronounced in SSA, whereas MENA exhibits weaker or delayed responses due to its reliance on fossil fuels. By conceptualizing governance as a conditional green mechanism, this study offers guidance to policymakers on sequencing reforms, strengthening enforcement, and integrating institutional upgrades with energy diversification, carbon pricing, and clean investments. The findings contribute to the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 13 and inform the Conference of the Parties (COP) agendas by highlighting the importance of context-specific, coordinated policies that align governance, energy, and urban systems to achieve sustainable long-term development outcomes.