Investigation of drought and flooding areas in coastal countries of West Africa in the context of global warming

Abstract

Abstract. This study investigated drought and flooding changes in West Africa between 1983–2012 and projected near future (2025–2054) periods. The datasets used are the CHIRTS and CHIRPS-2 for observed reanalysis and five (05) models of ISIMIP2b for Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1.2-6 and SSP5-8.5). Extremely and very wet days total precipitation (R95pTOT; R99pTOT) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were employed to investigate floods and drought spatial distribution using Sen Slope trend analysis method. The results showed that there is a variability in the spatial distribution of extreme indices with an upward and downward trend of dry and wet rainfall periods in West Africa in both historical and projected periods. This observation suggests that the study area is faced with rainfall variability marked by extreme events. A further examination on the spatial and temporal distribution of flood occurrence showed that more flood events were observed in the Gulf of Guinea and Savannah countries, followed by an increase in uniform spatial distribution and moderate wet days both under SSP1.2.6, and SSP 5.8.5. In addition, result showed that an upward trend in wet periods can cause the occurrence of extreme events associated with floods in the context of global warming. However, with these scenarios negative changes are not excluded in the East, the Sahel and some western part of the Gulf of Guinea in the study area for the SSP5.8.5 scenario. Thus, the results revealed that the spatio- temporal variability of extreme rainfall can have repercussions on the hydrological functioning of watersheds, water availability and water-dependent activities.