Investigation of an optimal control strategy for a cholera disease transmission model with programs

Abstract

Cholera is a disease of poverty affecting people with inadequate access to safe water and basic sanitation. Conflict, unplanned urbanization and climate change all increase the risk of cholera. In this article, an optimal control deterministic mathematical model of cholera disease with cost-effectiveness analysis is developed and analyzed considering both direct and indirect contact transmission pathways. The model qualitative behaviors, such as the invariant region, the existence of a positive invariant solution, the two equilibrium points (disease-free and endemic equilibrium), and their stabilities (local as well as global stability) of the model are studied. Moreover, the basic reproduction number of the model is obtained. We also performed sensitivity analysis of the basic parameters of the model. Then an optimal control problem is designed with a control functional having five controls: vaccination, treatment, environment sanitation and personal hygiene, and water quality improvement program. We examined the existence and uniqueness of the optimal controls of the system. Through the implementation of Pontryagin's maximum principle, the characterization of the optimal controls optimality system is established. The numerical simulation results the integrated control strategies demonstrated that strategy 2, 7, and 12 are effective programs to combat cholera disease from the community. Based on the local circumstances, available funds, and resources, it is recommended to the government stakeholders and policymakers to execute any one of the three integrated intervention programs.