Interpreting Seasonal Forecast Visualizations: Differences in Mental Models Between Experts and Users

Abstract

Weather and climate forecasting tools are becoming indispensable in helping individuals and communities prepare and cope with future conditions. However, despite considerable improvements in the physics behind forecasting in recent decades, forecasting still comes with inherent uncertainty. This study compares the accuracy and completeness of the mental models of expert ( N = 8) and general ( N = 20) users of a seasonal forecasting visualization. In addition, half the users were presented with the short narrative that normally accompanies the seasonal forecasting visualization and the other half were not shown the narrative. As expected, expert users had more accurate and complete mental models than general users, but even the expert users had misconceptions that would have had an impact on correct planning and would erode trust in seasonal forecasting. The short narrative improved the mental models and had a bigger impact on general users than expert users.