Integrating Long-Term Climate Trend Analysis and Household Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Assess Climate Stress in the Niger Delta Floodplain (Ughelli, Nigeria)

Abstract

Background: Climate change increasingly affects livelihoods and socioeconomic stability in climate-vulnerable regions, particularly across Sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited empirical research links long-term climatic trends with household-level perceptions and socioeconomic outcomes in medium-sized urban communities. Understanding how climate variability translates into perceived stress and livelihood challenges is essential for developing locally grounded climate adaptation and resilience strategies. Objectives: This study aims to assess climate change-induced stress and its socio-economic impacts on households in Ughelli, Delta State, Nigeria, by examining public awareness, the occurrence of climate stressors, and the effects on livelihoods in a localized context. Methods: climate change, occurrence of stress events, and socio-economic impacts. Remote sensing datasets, including CHIRPS rainfall and ERA5-Land temperature data from 1983–2022, were analysed using Google Earth Engine. Annual means were calculated, and trends assessed with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Descriptive statistics summarized survey responses, while Python and SPSS were used for data processing and statistical analysis. This mixed-methods approach allowed triangulation of subjective perceptions and objective climatic trends, providing a comprehensive understanding of localized climate impacts. Results: Survey results indicated that residents were aware of climate change and recognized flooding and heatwaves as frequent stress-inducing events, particularly affecting the elderly and low-income households. Respondents reported that climate stress negatively influenced agricultural productivity and household income. Remote sensing analysis revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in mean annual temperature (0.018°C per year, p<0.001), whereas rainfall exhibited substantial interannual variability without a consistent trend (p=0.432). These findings demonstrate a combination of warming and erratic precipitation patterns contributing to localized climate stress. Perceptions of government interventions indicated that policies exist but are perceived as insufficient at the household level, highlighting gaps in adaptation implementation. Conclusion: The study provides empirical evidence linking long-term warming and variable rainfall to household-level socio-economic stress in Ughelli. Findings reveal frequent climate-induced disruptions to livelihoods, particularly for vulnerable populations, addressing a localized knowledge gap in Niger Delta climate research.