Integrating GIS, Remote Sensing, and Machine Learning to Optimize Sustainable Groundwater Recharge in Arid Mediterranean Landscapes: A Case Study from the Middle Draa Valley, Morocco

Abstract

Groundwater plays a crucial role in sustaining agriculture and livelihoods in the arid Middle Draa Valley (MDV) of southeastern Morocco. However, increasing groundwater extraction, declining rainfall, and the absence of effective floodwater harvesting systems have led to severe aquifer depletion. This study applies and compares six machine learning (ML) algorithms—decision trees (CART), ensemble methods (random forest, LightGBM, XGBoost), distance-based learning (k-nearest neighbors), and support vector machines—integrating GIS, satellite data, and field observations to delineate zones suitable for groundwater recharge. The results indicate that ensemble tree-based methods yielded the highest predictive accuracy, with LightGBM outperforming the others by achieving an overall accuracy of 0.90. Random forest and XGBoost also demonstrated strong performance, effectively identifying priority areas for artificial recharge, particularly near ephemeral streams. A feature importance analysis revealed that soil permeability, elevation, and stream proximity were the most influential variables in recharge zone delineation. The generated maps provide valuable support for irrigation planning, aquifer conservation, and floodwater management. Overall, the proposed machine learning–geospatial framework offers a robust and transferable approach for mapping groundwater recharge zones (GWRZ) in arid and semi-arid regions, contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs))—notably SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), by enhancing water-use efficiency and groundwater recharge (Target 6.4), and SDG 13 (Climate Action), by supporting climate-resilient aquifer management.