Influence of land use land cover and climate change on discharge in the Upper Cubango-Kavango River Basin (Angola, Namibia) using Budyko model

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study quantifies the influence of human activities and climate change (CC), on discharge in the Upper Cubango-Kavango River Basin (UCKRB). The Budyko model was applied to evaluate how discharge has responded to LULC and CC from 1994 to 2024 in UCKRB. The land use and land cover (LULC) maps, with a resolution of 30 m, were composed from Google Earth Engine (GEE), using Landsat 5 TM (1994 and 2009) and Landsat 9 OLI (2024). Monthly temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from NASA's Power platform and the Climate Hazards Information Requirements Program (CHIRPS). The results showed that (1) the most significant changes in LULC were observed in cropland, which increased by 18,169 km², while forestry areas decreased by 12,027 km², (2) temperature increased at an annual rate of 0.11°C, whereas precipitation decreased at an annual rate of 2 mm, and (3) human activity and CC were responsible for a 74.1 mm decrease in discharge between 1994 and 2024 in the UCKRB. The findings of this study will support policymaking and sustainable land-use planning by governments, NGOs, and industries, thereby enabling proactive environmental and socio-economic strategies.