article · Nature Communications
Coastal zones face mounting threats from human activity and climate change. Analysis of satellite-derived global shoreline positions between 1993 and 2019 alongside reanalysis datasets indicates that coastal movement is dictated by three primary forces: sea-level, ocean waves, and river discharge. Sea level directly alters coastal mobility, waves govern erosion, accretion, and total water levels, and river output regulates sediment supply alongside salinity-driven water levels. Integrating these mechanisms into a global conceptual model reveals that year-to-year shoreline changes are predominantly driven by differing El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes and their associated teleconnections across ocean basins. Incorporating these large-scale climate patterns provides a clearer foundation for understanding and forecasting climate-driven coastal hazards.
Coastal environments support vital ecosystems, infrastructure, and human settlements that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. Demonstrating how global climate cycles such as El Niño influence wave actions, water levels, and river discharge provides a clearer understanding of coastal erosion and accretion patterns. This enables planners and scientists to better anticipate shoreline movement and prepare for related coastal hazards.
The research presents a conceptual global model, placing it at an early stage of development. The framework could eventually support predictive coastal hazard mapping tools or risk assessment software used by coastal planners, environmental consultancies, and infrastructure insurers. Further engineering and validation would be required to translate this global scientific understanding into applied, site-specific commercial forecasting products.
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Coastal zones are fragile and complex dynamical systems that are increasingly under threat from the combined effects of anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Using global satellite derived shoreline positions from 1993 to 2019 and a variety of reanalysis products, here we show that shorelines are under the influence of three main drivers: sea-level, ocean waves and river discharge. While sea level directly affects coastal mobility, waves affect both erosion/accretion and total water levels, and rivers affect coastal sediment budgets and salinity-induced water levels. By deriving a conceptual global model that accounts for the influence of dominant modes of climate variability on these drivers, we show that interannual shoreline changes are largely driven by different ENSO regimes and their complex inter-basin teleconnections. Our results provide a new framework for understanding and predicting climate-induced coastal hazards.
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38742-9
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