Improving Photovoltaic Power Prediction: Insights through Computational Modeling and Feature Selection

Abstract

This work focuses on identifying the most effective machine learning techniques and supervised learning models to precisely estimate power output from Photovoltaic (PV) plants. The performance of various regression models is analyzed by harnessing experimental data, including Random Forest, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Linear Regressor (LR), Gradient Boosting, and k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). The methodology applied starts with meticulous data preprocessing steps aimed at ensuring dataset integrity. Following the preprocessing phase, which entails eliminating missing values and outliers using Isolation Feature selection based on a correlation threshold, is performed to identify relevant parameters for accurate prediction in PV systems. Subsequently, Isolation Forest is employed for outlier detection, followed by model training and evaluation using key performance metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared (R2). Among the array of models evaluated, Random Forest emerges as the top performer, highlighting promising results with an RMSE of 19.413, NRMSE of 0.048% and an R2 score of 0.968. Furthermore, the best-performing model is integrated into a MATLAB application for real-time predictions, thereby enhancing usability and accessibility for a wide range of applications in renewable energy.