Impact of Climate Change on the Streamflow in the Region of the Proposed Pwalugu Hydropower Plant

Abstract

Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme precipitation and temperature events, significantly affecting the environment. This study examines the impact of climate change on streamflow in the region allocated for the Pwalugu Hydropower Plant. This study employed SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 across three temporal frameworks: the near future (2015–2043), the mid future (2044–2072), and the far future (2073–2100) with a reference period (1984–2014). A comparative analysis of three distinct machine learning models—ANN, LSTM, as well as SVM—was performed using statistical metrics including NSE, PBias, as well as R². The forecast of climate change indicates an increase in both frequency as well as intensity in the coming decades, potentially presenting a persistent threat to the advancement of hydropower as precipitation levels and patterns become increasingly erratic. Equally, the projections anticipated a decrease in streamflow under SSP2-4.5 for all three periods. Compared to the streamflow under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. It is noticed that SSP5-8.5 has the highest projections, especially in near and far future periods. As a result, it is advisable for decision-makers to implement measures aimed at mitigating risk and vulnerability, fortifying resilience, improving well-being, and developing the capacity to effectively anticipate and address the challenges presented by climate change in the vicinity of the proposed Pwalugu Hydropower Plant. The administration of water resources within the region would not only benefit the proposed Pwalugu Hydropower Plant but would significantly contribute to the sustainability of both agricultural and domestic endeavors.