Impact of carbon dioxide emissions on life expectancy in Morocco: An ARDL model approach

Abstract

In a context marked by rising environmental pressures and the need to improve health outcomes sustainably, Morocco provides a relevant case for examining the health implications of CO 2 emissions. In line with Sustainable Development Goals 3 and 13, this study investigates the dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and life expectancy at birth in Morocco over the period 2000–2023 using annual data. The conceptual framework is based on the health production function of Smith and Dunt (1992), according to which life expectancy depends on both medical inputs and non-medical factors, particularly environmental pressures. The analysis uses life expectancy as the dependent variable, CO 2 emissions as an indicator of environmental pressure, the overall health budget as a proxy for public health financing, and medical availability, measured by the number of doctors per 10,000 inhabitants, as an indicator of healthcare supply. Data are drawn from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank, the International Energy Agency , and statistics from the Moroccan Ministry of Health and Social Protection. The econometric approach relies on an ARDL model and its restricted error correction representation (RECM), after testing the stationarity of the series, selecting the optimal lag order, and performing the bounds testing procedure for cointegration. The results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. They also show that the effect of CO 2 emissions on life expectancy is not strictly contemporaneous, but unfolds through a lagged dynamic. At the same time, medical availability exerts a positive and significant effect on life expectancy, while the error correction term confirms a gradual adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium. These findings support integrated public policies aimed at reducing environmental pressures, strengthening healthcare availability, and improving the effectiveness of public health expenditure.