article · Journal of Water and Climate Change
This research investigated the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Borkena watershed in Ethiopia. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, driven by three Global Circulation Models under two emission scenarios, projections were made for temperature, rainfall, and streamflow. The study forecasts an increase in mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures by 0.56 °C and 0.31 °C respectively. Significant changes in average monthly and seasonal rainfall are also anticipated. Crucially, mean annual streamflow is projected to decrease from 2021 to 2080, indicating less water availability in the Borkena River. Furthermore, extreme streamflows show a strong negative trend, with flood volumes potentially decreasing by substantial percentages across different future periods and scenarios.
Understanding future hydrological changes in river basins is vital for water resource management and planning. These projections help anticipate challenges like water scarcity and altered flood risks, informing strategies for agriculture, urban water supply, and environmental protection in the face of a changing climate.
This early-stage research provides critical hydrological projections that could inform water resource planning and management strategies for local authorities and water utility companies. The findings on reduced streamflow and flood volumes could guide infrastructure development, agricultural water allocation, and drought preparedness programmes. The abstract does not indicate any direct commercial product or near-market application.
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ABSTRACT This research aimed at the study of climate change effects on the hydrology of the Borkena watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model driven by three different Global Circulation Models under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios was used. The mean annual maximum and minimum temperature projected to increase by 0.56 and 0.31 °C, respectively. The study also resulted in a considerable average monthly and seasonal rainfall changes both in magnitude and direction. Relative to the baseline period, the changes in mean annual streamflow from 2021 to 2080 are mostly negative and indicate a reduction in the volume of discharge available in the Borkena River. In addition, trends in the extreme flow are also determined for high and low flows and the results show a forceful negative trend for extreme streamflows, and flood volumes may decrease by 43.1% in RCP4.5 under MPI (2021–2040), 38.6% (2041–2060), and 49.4% (2061–2080) in RCP8.5 under IPSL and MIROC5, respectively.
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DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2025.024
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