article · Climate Services
A hydrological study evaluated the impact of climate change on streamflow in the Loukkos basin of northwestern Morocco using the SWAT model. Projections were assessed across three future time periods spanning 2021 to 2100 against a 1981 to 2020 baseline. The evaluation incorporated regional and global climate models under multiple emissions pathways, calibrated and validated across ten hydrological stations. Results showed strong simulation performance, with most stations achieving a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency above 0.77. Overall, 82 percent of the evaluated climate models projected future declines in streamflow. The most substantial decreases were identified for the 2071 to 2100 period under high-emissions pathways. The resulting projections are intended to assist planners and policymakers in shaping water management and climate adaptation strategies.
Climate-driven reductions in streamflow present serious risks to regional water security, agriculture, and municipal supplies. By forecasting river flow trends over the remainder of the century, this work provides critical foresight for water authorities. It highlights an impending long-term decline in water availability, which is essential for designing resilient infrastructure and proactive water-rationing policies.
This work offers early-stage decision-support evidence rather than a commercial product. The modelling could inform water utilities, agricultural irrigation boards, and government planners designing climate adaptation programmes and catchment management strategies. The findings are applied research outputs that require further translation into operational planning tools or municipal risk assessments before direct adoption by infrastructure operators.
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Climate change is one of the most important factors impacting hydrological regimes. In this paper, climate change impact on streamflow of Loukkos basin (northwestern Morocco) is evaluated using SWAT model for three future periods: near (2021–2040), mid (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100), compared to baseline 1981–2020. A set of bias-corrected climate models was used: five regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX), four global climate models (CMIP6) and their ensemble mean, under two representative concentration pathways respectively (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5) and (SSP2-4.5; SSP5-8.5). Furthermore, SUFI-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP was performed to calibrate (1981–1997), validate (1998–2015), and analyze uncertainty for each dataset at ten hydrological stations. In most stations, statistical performance indicated a good simulation, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.77 and percent bias (PBIAS) within ±10% on a monthly basis. Overall, 82% of models indicated that future climate could decline streamflow. The largest decrease would be for 2071–2100 and under RCP 8.5/SSP5-8.5. Our findings could help planners and policymakers in developing reasonable water management policies and climate change adaptation measures.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100388
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