Household Vulnerability and Poverty in the Bikoro Territory in Democratic Republic of Congo: Analysis of the Macro and Microeconomic Shocks of the 2018 Ebola Epidemic

Abstract

On May 8, 2018, the Democratic Republic of Congo officially declared the occurrence of the ninth episode of Ebola Virus Disease in the territory of Bikoro, Equateur province. This epidemic has caused enormous damage to the province's economy and also to the standard of living in households. The deterioration in the economic fabric has led to inflationary pressures, weakened the capacity to mobilize tax revenues and increased the potential risks to the viability of public finances at provincial level. Further more, it has seriously threatened food security and plunged many already vulnerable households into extreme poverty. Overall, the slowdown in economic activity in all sectors resulting from the combined effects of the fall in aggregate demand and the demobilization of factors of production will lead to: a fall in the overall supply of products, particularly agricultural products, with a consequent increase in food insecurity; a reduction in wage and non-wage household incomes and a worsening of poverty. Tax revenues have also fallen, worsening the public deficit and debt sustainability. The scarcity of basic products has fueled speculation on the market, leading to high price inflation and even the destabilization of the macroeconomic framework at provincial level. Material and monetary poverty, the sector of activity and high household size are the main determinants of poverty. The impact of the epidemic has affected agricultural production and, ultimately, household income. The reallocation of household expenditure is eloquent proof of vulnerability.