article · Nature
State-of-the-art climate models project future precipitation declines in the Mediterranean, leading to conflicting views on whether historical rainfall has already dropped or remained stationary amid high natural variability. An assessment of records from over 23,000 weather stations across 27 countries reveals that Mediterranean precipitation largely remained stationary between 1871 and 2020. While notable interannual and multi-decadal variations occurred, localised or period-specific trends were driven primarily by atmospheric dynamics linked to internal variability rather than persistent long-term declines. These observational records align with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations, which also show no prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. Clarifying these long-term dynamics provides a more accurate historical baseline for environmental planning, agricultural policy, and water management in this key climate hotspot.
The Mediterranean is considered a major climate change hotspot where water availability directly shapes agriculture, natural ecosystems, and economic stability. Clarifying that regional precipitation has historically remained stationary despite large swings helps prevent misinterpretations of recent dry periods. It enables environmental, water, and agricultural authorities to base infrastructure and resource planning on robust, verified historical climate trends.
This early-stage research provides empirical baseline data applicable to water resources planning, agricultural management, and climate risk assessment. Potential users include public water authorities, regional agricultural planners, and environmental risk modellers seeking to calibrate hydrologic and planning models against verified multi-decadal records. The work constitutes foundational historical analysis rather than an applied commercial product or direct operational tool.
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State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future<sup>1</sup>. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation<sup>2-4</sup>, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences<sup>3,5</sup>. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns<sup>6,7</sup> maintaining stationarity over the long term<sup>8,9</sup>. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world's prominent climate change hotspots<sup>10</sup>.
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6
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