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article · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa’s provinces, 1990–2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

2022107 citationsOpen accessUniversity of the Witwatersrand

In plain language

This research evaluated national and provincial health trends in South Africa from 1990 to 2019, using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. The study analysed mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures, and risk factor burdens, comparing trends across two periods. It found that health inequalities across provinces, largely driven by HIV/AIDS, increased from 1990 to 2007 but then decreased from 2007 to 2019. Years lived with disability nearly doubled due to demographic changes and a rise in non-communicable diseases. While risk factors shifted towards non-communicable diseases and injuries, unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Healthcare system performance improved, with the greatest gains in economically advantaged provinces.

Key takeaways

  • Health inequalities in South Africa's provinces, driven by HIV/AIDS, increased from 1990-2007 but decreased from 2007-2019.
  • The number of years lived with disability nearly doubled between 1990 and 2019, largely due to demographic changes and an increase in non-communicable diseases.
  • Risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional diseases to non-communicable diseases and injuries, though unsafe sex remained the leading risk factor.
  • Healthcare system performance improved across provinces, but economically advantaged provinces saw the most significant gains.
  • Despite improvements linked to reduced HIV/AIDS, many provinces still need to enhance health investments and knowledge exchange to meet health targets.

Why it matters

This research highlights how health challenges and inequalities have evolved across South Africa's provinces over three decades. Understanding these trends, including the impact of HIV/AIDS and the rise of non-communicable diseases, is crucial for policymakers to target health investments effectively and reduce disparities, ultimately improving public health outcomes nationwide.

Commercialisation angle

The abstract indicates that this is a large-scale epidemiological study providing insights into public health trends and inequalities. It does not indicate an application pathway for commercialisation, nor does it suggest a specific product, service, or technology that could be commercialised.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Research topics

  • Global Maternal and Child Health
  • HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
  • Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health

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DOI: 10.1136/jech-2021-217480

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