Gravity-based assessment and modeling of accessibility in Bahir Dar City: without peripheral settlements

Abstract

Abstract In developing countries, rapid urbanization and urban sprawl necessitate comprehensive assessments of urban sustainability to guide effective policy and decision-making. This study introduces a gravity-based accessibility model to examine factors influencing accessibility and to categorize urban subdivisions, focusing on urban land use and transport networks. A quantitative methodology was employed using geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical software, encompassing four main steps. First, land use, population, road network, and shop data were collected. Second, the data were integrated into ArcGIS to generate metrics such as land use proportions, centroid locations, shortest origin-destination distances, road network lengths, and intersection densities. Third, a gravity-based model was applied to assess accessibility across kebeles and for each major land use type. Finally, multiple regression analysis was performed to incorporate influencing factors and validate the model’s variables. The findings highlighted that kebeles with diverse land use types had significantly higher accessibility, while peripheral kebeles showed low accessibility, requiring targeted interventions to reduce strain on central areas. The study introduces and theoretically differentiates two complementary indicators: average accessibility score and total accessibility score, which respectively capture accessibility efficiency and cumulative opportunity magnitude. The average score reflects the overall performance of a kebele when significant land use types are limited, while the total score indicated land use diversity, relative centrality, and development within a kebele. These measures provide actionable insights for achieving sustainable and balanced urban development.