Government's economic management and citizen satisfaction: a Partisan Disconfirmation Model

Abstract

Introduction How do citizens evaluate government economic performance? Although both economic perceptions and partisan identity are known to shape political attitudes, their interaction remains poorly understood. This study develops a Partisan Disconfirmation Model (PDM), integrating expectancy–disconfirmation theory (EDT) with partisan identity to explain how citizens form satisfaction judgments about government economic management. Methods The study uses a nationally representative Afrobarometer survey data from Malawi ( N = 1,200). Ordered logistic regression models are estimated to examine how perceptions of national economic conditions and partisan identification influence satisfaction with government economic management. The analysis includes interaction terms to assess whether partisan effects vary across economic contexts. Hypotheses are evaluated using omnibus Wald tests of joint parameter significance, alongside post-estimation contrasts based on predicted probabilities. Results Perceived economic performance emerges as the strongest predictor of satisfaction, with more positive evaluations significantly increasing the likelihood of favorable assessments of government economic management. Partisan alignment also shapes evaluations, as ruling-party identifiers report higher satisfaction than opposition supporters. While joint tests confirm the independent effects of economic perceptions and partisanship, post-estimation contrasts provide no evidence that partisan effects vary across economic contexts, indicating that these influences operate independently rather than conditionally. Discussion The findings highlight the central role of economic performance perceptions in shaping satisfaction with government economic management. Although partisanship influences baseline attitudes, the absence of conditional partisan belief updating suggests that economic perceptions and partisan identity exert independent effects, rather than interacting through a disconfirmation process as predicted by the PDM.