article · Remote Sensing
Predictive modelling of land use and land cover provides valuable foresight for agricultural planning and risk mitigation. Using a cellular automata Markov forecasting model, future land use scenarios were projected for the 9 April 1947 watershed in Morocco across the target years 2028, 2038, and 2050. The model demonstrated satisfactory simulation performance according to standard spatial agreement metrics. Projections reveal a concerning decline in both agricultural lands and wetlands across the watershed, pointing towards potential crop losses and ecosystem stress. Conversely, the model indicates an expansion of forest areas, presenting possible benefits for regional flora and fauna biodiversity. The resulting land cover maps are intended to feed into agro-hydrological modelling alongside climate projections to assess long-term water balance, sediment yield, and overall water availability.
Forecasting changes in landscape composition helps watershed managers and agricultural authorities prepare for emerging environmental challenges. Anticipating reductions in arable land and wetlands allows planners to design timely interventions to protect food production. At the same time, monitoring forest expansion helps quantify prospective biodiversity gains, supporting balanced environmental conservation and water resource strategies.
This research provides predictive spatial data suitable for environmental consultancies, watershed authorities, and agricultural planning bodies seeking to forecast ecosystem and farming shifts. The work is at an applied research stage: the simulation model is tested and validated locally, with proposed future integration into agro-hydrological tools to assess water and sediment yields. Broad operational deployment will depend on coupling these land use maps with operational hydrological management systems.
AI-generated from the published abstract. Always read the original work before citing.
Modeling of land use and land cover (LULC) is a very important tool, particularly in the agricultural field: it allows us to know the potential changes in land area in the future and to consider developments in order to prevent probable risks. The idea is to give a representation of probable future situations based on certain assumptions. The objective of this study is to make future predictions in land use and land cover in the watershed “9 April 1947”, and in the years 2028, 2038 and 2050. Then, the maps obtained with the climate predictions will be integrated into an agro-hydrological model to know the water yield, the sediment yield and the water balance of the studied area by 2050.The future land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios were created using a CA-Markov forecasting model. The results of the simulation of the LULC changes were considered satisfactory, as shown by the values obtained from the kappa indices for agreement (κstandard) = 0.73, kappa for lack of information (κno) = 0.76, and kappa for location at grid cell level (κlocation) = 0.80. Future scenarios modeled in LULC indicate a decrease in agricultural areas and wetlands, both of which can be seen as a warning of crop loss. There is, on the other hand, an increase in forest areas that could be an advantage for the biodiversity of the fauna and flora in the “9 April 1947” watershed.
This page summarises published work. The authoritative version sits with the publisher.
DOI: 10.3390/rs15041162
Is something wrong with this record? Report it or request removal.
Discussion
Have you built on this work, tried to replicate it, or seen it applied in practice? Share what you know. Verified researchers and MARATTO™ domain experts can open a discussion, and any member can reply. Contributions are reviewed before they appear.
No discussion yet. Open the first thread.
New to MARATTO™? Create a free account.
