From connectivity to capability: mobile digital infrastructure and the conversion of Nigeria's demographic potential

Abstract

Purpose This paper asks through what mechanisms, and under what regulatory and institutional conditions, mobile digital connectivity can help convert Nigeria’s demographic potential into productive capability. Design/methodology/approach The paper is conceptual. It develops a connectivity-to-capability framework and applies it to Nigeria’s mobile transformation since liberalisation in 2001, drawing on regulatory statistics, national policy instruments and the ICT4D, digital inequality and demographic-dividend literatures. Findings Connectivity can reduce transaction frictions, widen financial and market participation, support skills acquisition and enable platform-mediated enterprise. Nigerian evidence nonetheless shows that access is expanding faster than productive use: teledensity exceeds 87 per cent, while broadband penetration remains near 56 per cent; formal financial inclusion has risen, while credit and insurance use remain marginal; and 93 per cent of employment is informal. Research limitations/implications The argument is conceptual rather than econometric. It specifies mediating and moderating relationships for subsequent empirical testing. Practical implications Digital policy should shift from coverage targets towards affordability, electricity, skills and domestic value capture, coordinated across regulators rather than confined to telecommunications policy. Originality This paper links digital development and demographic dividend scholarship through a digital-demographic interface, positioning productive capability as the intermediate layer between connectivity and economic outcomes.