From abundant resource to critical commodity: Forecasting manganese supply and assessing its sustainability

Abstract

Manganese, despite being one of the most abundant elements in the Earth's crust, has been designated as a critical raw material by numerous countries due to its irreplaceable role in modern applications. Manganese demand is projected to rise due to the deployment of renewable energy technologies. However, its future supply relative to projected demand has not been thoroughly considered. Increasing material demand, geopolitical tension, an asymmetric manganese market, and a displacement of supply risks from other materials to manganese (via substitution) motivate for a thorough examination of the potential future outcomes of manganese supply and sustainability. We provide an analysis of the future supply and demand of manganese, its implications and provide some recommendations in the context of energy and material sufficiency. In summary, we offer a: (1) systematic review of manganese and its mineral value chain; (2) a set of data-driven production forecasts, at regional to global scales; (3) scenario analysis of four end-member scenarios of the supply and demand system; and (4) broad geographical analysis and policy recommendations. Our forecasts used production data from 1929 to 2022, employing multiple forecasting methods. Forecasts indicate potential production increases in top-producing countries such as Australia, Gabon, Ghana, India and South Africa. Conversely, Western nations face potential shortages due to declining manganese extraction and rising demand for renewable energy technologies. Meanwhile, BRICS nations, with growing production capabilities and a broader base of producing countries, are likely to maintain a secure supply. Pragmatic and system-level policies, such as increasing lifecycle times, decreasing energy costs to improve recycling rates, and fostering peace through trade can enhance manganese sustainability. • Manganese is essential for modern society but faces rising demand and supply risks. • Forecasting models (ARIMA, Holt, Hubbert) reveal regional disparities in future production trends. • Western world countries could face shortages whereas BRICS countries could experience an excess. • Manganese demand will depend on geopolitics, export diversification and poverty reduction. • Mitigations include supply diversification, material substitution, supply chain resilience and the 3Rs.