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Foreign Direct Investment, Taxation, and Growth Dynamics in Morocco: An ARDL Bounds-Testing Analysis

2026Open accessCadi Ayyad University

In plain language

This research evaluates how taxation moderates the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic expansion in Morocco using data spanning 1990 to 2024. Through an Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds-testing approach, the analysis reveals that inward foreign direct investment is positively linked to long-run gross domestic product growth, real gross domestic product, and gross domestic product per capita. Conversely, the overall fiscal burden, as well as its interaction with foreign direct investment, shows a negative association with these performance measures. Even though the marginal benefit of foreign investment stays positive across the observed taxation levels in Morocco, its positive association declines by 4.11 percent for growth, 31.08 percent for real gross domestic product, and 13.47 percent for gross domestic product per capita. Ultimately, the realised fiscal burden serves as a significant conditioning factor on foreign investment benefits.

Key takeaways

  • Foreign direct investment is positively associated with long-run GDP growth, real GDP, and GDP per capita in Morocco.
  • The aggregate fiscal burden and its interaction with foreign direct investment correlate negatively with these economic outcomes.
  • The marginal positive association of foreign direct investment decreases by up to 31.08 percent depending on the economic metric across the observed tax spectrum.
  • The realised tax burden moderates and weakens the growth advantages delivered by foreign direct investment.

Why it matters

Understanding how national taxation policy alters the economic benefits of foreign direct investment helps policymakers balance public revenue requirements against economic expansion. For nations seeking outside capital, this evidence demonstrates that high fiscal burdens can substantially diminish the growth gains generated by incoming foreign investment.

Commercialisation angle

The abstract does not indicate an application pathway, as it focuses strictly on macroeconomic policy analysis rather than a product or commercial service.

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Abstract

The existing empirical literature on Morocco has examined FDI and economic growth, taxation and growth, and taxation and FDI separately. This study addresses this gap by investigating taxation’s moderating role in the FDI–growth nexus using Moroccan data from 1990 to 2024 and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach. The findings show that FDI is positively associated with long-run GDP growth, real GDP, and GDP per capita, whereas the aggregate fiscal burden and its interaction with FDI are negatively associated with these outcomes. Nevertheless, the marginal association of FDI remains positive across Morocco’s observed tax range, although it declines by 4.11%, 31.08%, and 13.47%, respectively. These findings show that the realised fiscal burden conditions the FDI–growth relationship.

Research topics

  • International Business and FDI
  • Corporate Taxation and Avoidance
  • Global trade and economics

Sustainable Development Goals

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DOI: 10.3390/economies14090387

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