Forecasting of energy-related carbon dioxide emission using ANN combined with hybrid metaheuristic optimization algorithms

Abstract

Energy-related CO2 emissions are one of the biggest concerns facing urban design today, increasing rapidly as cities grow. This study uses as inputs the GDP of the G8 nations (from 1990 to 2016) depending on the utilization of various energy sources, including coal, oil, natural gas, and renewable energy. Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) are combined with various nature-inspired optimization algorithms, such as Heap-Based Optimizer (HBO), Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Vortex Search algorithm (VS), and Earthworm Optimization Algorithm (EWA), to create a dependable predictive network that takes the complexity of the problem into account. Our key contributions lie in developing and comprehensively evaluating these hybrid models assessing their efficacy in capturing the intricate dynamics of carbon emissions. The study found that TLBO and VS outperform other algorithms in CO2 emission computation accuracy. TLBO has a higher training MSE (3.6778) and lower testing MSE (4.4673), suggesting larger squared errors on training data and lower testing MSE, suggesting less overfitting due to better generalization to the testing set.