Financial Inclusion or Financial Expansion? Disaggregated Evidence on Mobile Money Mechanisms and Sustainable Development in Sub Saharan Africa

Abstract

This study examines the effect of mobile financial inclusion mechanisms on sustainable development in Nigeria, Kenya, and Cameroon from 2010 to 2024. Specifically, it evaluates mobile money penetration, transactions, and outlet density on gross domestic product per capita growth rate (GDPGR). Despite extensive research on Kenya, Nigeria has limited studies and Cameroon remains under-researched. No prior study isolated and compared these three mechanisms' specific effects on GDP per capita growth across these countries. Anchored on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), the study used secondary data from World Bank Development Indicators and Global Data Index, employing Panel Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) and Granger Causality tests. Results showed that mobile money penetration had no significant effect on GDPGR across all three countries at the pooled level, though Nigeria showed a positive significant country-specific effect. Mobile money transactions had no significant effect on GDPGR across all countries. Mobile money outlet density had a significant negative effect on GDPGR at the pooled level, with Nigeria showing a significant negative country-specific effect. The study concludes that developmental impact depends on effective service usage and productive sector integration, not merely access expansion or account ownership. It recommends that regulators promote product-linked accounts, transform agent networks into SME service hubs, and integrate mobile finance with national digital economy policies to achieve tangible sustainable development outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa.