Extreme weather Impacts mediated appearance and infection of wheat yellow rust disease in Egypt

Abstract

Climate change, along with its related extreme weather phenomena, is markedly affecting the prevalence and intensity of wheat yellow rust disease in Egypt. Elevated temperatures, unusual precipitation patterns, and elevated humidity might establish more conducive conditions for the proliferation of the yellow rust fungus (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici Pst) to infect wheat. This can lead to earlier disease epidemic, increased disease severity, and ultimately, yield losses. The effects of climate change may be advantageous, detrimental, or neutral. These alterations may diminish, augment, or exert no influence on diseases, with variations contingent upon the location or temporal context. This study aims to evaluate the effects of climate change on the predominant disease, yellow rust of wheat, in Egypt. The assessment was based on identifying the suitable meteorological conditions for disease spread using expected future climate data. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2021) report, future climate data were derived using the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP-4.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which predict a temperature increase of 1.5°C in the short term (2030–2040) and 2.0°C in the medium term (2050–2060). The results indicate a decrease in the severity of disease infection under future climate change conditions from 2024 to 2060. The findings showed that the highest rates of disease infection in the studied governorate were in the years 2019, 2021, and 2022, with extreme weather conditions playing an important role.