Extended LSTM to Enhance Learner Performance Prediction

Abstract

Knowledge Tracing (KT) is a fundamental task in intelligent education systems, designed to track students’ evolving knowledge states and predict their future performance. While Deep Learning-based Knowledge Tracing (DLKT) models have advanced the field, they often face significant limitations in jointly capturing short-term performance fluctuations and long-term knowledge retention, which restricts their predictive precision in complex learning trajectories. This paper proposes the Extended Deep Knowledge Tracing (xDKT) model, which integrates the Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) architecture to enhance multi-scale temporal learning representations. Specifically, through rigorous ablation studies over extended learning sequences (up to 1000 steps), our analysis indicates that the exponential gating and advanced scalar memory of sLSTM units are the primary drivers of performance. This architecture effectively captures both short-term performance shifts and long-term knowledge retention without the vanishing gradient degradation inherent to standard LSTMs. We evaluate xDKT across six diverse benchmark datasets, including Synthetic, Algebra2005–2006, Statics2011, and the ASSISTments series, covering over 22,000 learners. Experimental results show that xDKT yields improved Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) scores on Statics2011 (0.8562) and ASSISTments2009 (0.8318) compared to baseline models such as DKT, DKVMN, and AKT. Finally, through extensive validation, these findings suggest that xDKT architecture provides a robust and promising framework for accurate and adaptive learning environments.