Exploring the impacts of climate change, institutional quality, and conflicts on food security in Africa

Abstract

Food insecurity remains a critical and persistent development challenge in Africa, exacerbated by accelerating climate change, recurrent conflicts, and weak institutional capacity. While these factors have been widely studied in isolation, limited empirical evidence exists on their joint and interactive effects on food security (FS) across the continent. This study examines the individual, combined, and moderating roles of climate change, institutional quality (INSQ), and conflict in shaping food security outcomes in 27 African countries over the period 2012–2021. Using panel data from multiple international sources, the study employs fixed effects and system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators to address unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity concerns. The results show that rising temperatures and drought significantly undermine food security, while conflict independently reduces food security. Importantly, the interaction between conflict and climate stressors—particularly temperature and drought—amplifies food insecurity outcomes. In contrast, higher institutional quality and increased agricultural investment significantly improve food security and mitigate the adverse effects of both climate change and conflict. These findings underscore the central role of effective governance in building resilient food systems. The study highlights the need for integrated policy approaches that simultaneously strengthen institutional capacity, promote climate-smart agricultural investments, and incorporate conflict-sensitive strategies to achieve sustainable food security in Africa.