Examining the relationship between inclusive growth and tax revenue mobilization: additional evidence from sub-Saharan African countries

Abstract

Purpose The study investigates the influence of inclusive growth on tax revenue. It validates the fiscal exchange and resource bargaining theories, which suggest that tax compliance improves when citizens perceive that their tax contributions lead to enhanced welfare and that the government negotiates with people to provide public goods and services in exchange for taxes received. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs inclusive growth measures, including an integrated GDP and equity growth measure and alternative proxies based on GDP per person employed and Asian Development Bank (ADB) inclusive growth indicators. Using 39 sub-Saharan African countries as a sample, our analysis captures spatial interactions across these contiguous countries using the Fixed-Effect model with the Driscoll and Kraay non-parametric consistent covariance matrix and the spatial Durbin Arellano–Bond linear dynamic panel generalized method of moment (Spatial GMM) approach with an interaction weight matrix to capture interactions between countries in the region. Findings The paper shows that inclusive growth positively influences tax revenue in the region. This validates the fiscal exchange and resource bargaining hypotheses, demonstrating that tax compliance is positively influenced by public goods provision and the government’s ability to emphasize the necessity of taxes for service provision. It indicates that citizens are more willing to pay taxes when the government effectively promotes welfare. We find a significant positive spatial spillover effect, suggesting that inclusive growth not only boosts tax revenue within a specific country but also extends its benefits to neighboring countries, aligning with the spillover theory. Practical implications The study posits that the government implements policies that guarantee effectiveness and accountability in public welfare delivery as well as sufficient tax bases and tax revenue. An inclusive growth policy that engenders GDP growth, employment and equity growth should be implemented since the rate of tax compliance of the citizens improves for every welfare provided by the government. Originality/value This study tests the validity of the fiscal exchange and resource bargaining theories in Sub-Saharan Africa. Accommodating spatial dependence and cross-border effects, the study sheds light on how inclusive growth impacts tax revenue across contiguous countries in the region. As such, the region should prioritize regional integration, fostering economic ties and harmonizing policies through knowledge sharing and cross-border investment.