Evaluation of Mpox surveillance system in Kwara State Nigeria from January to December 2022 with implications for outbreak preparedness

Abstract

Abstract Background The reemergence of Mpox, a zoonotic disease, threatens health in Nigeria. Given its 2017 resurgence and international spread, an effective surveillance system for prompt detection and control is urgent. Evaluations ensure optimal disease monitoring efficiency. Periodic assessments improve surveillance systems’ quality and performance. The study examined Mpox surveillance in Kwara State, Nigeria, and proposed improvements. Methods A cross-sectional study followed CDC (2001) guidelines. Data collection occurred across all 16 Local Government Areas using questionnaires and SORMAS records from January to December 2022. The study evaluated surveillance attributes including simplicity, flexibility, data quality, acceptability, representativeness, stability, and training. Performance metrics like sensitivity, timeliness, and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated. Results The system demonstrated excellent sensitivity at 100%, along with high data quality and prompt reporting, both at 95%. It scored well in simplicity, training, and representativeness. However, flexibility (46%), acceptability (17%), and stability (51%) were not up to the mark. The PPV stood at 42%, suggesting potential issues with overreporting and laboratory capacity. Conclusion The Mpox surveillance system in Kwara State is currently functional and efficient, but it requires improvements in stability, adaptability, and support for healthcare personnel. Policy initiatives should focus on refining case definitions, enhancing laboratory logistics, formalizing training programs, and implementing structured feedback mechanisms. These actions will improve the quality of monitoring and readiness for future outbreaks.