Establishing climate-responsive pest and disease management strategies in Tanzanian sugarcane plantations

Abstract

Sugarcane productivity in Tanzania is increasingly affected by insect pest and disease infestations linked to climatic variability. This study, conducted in 2022–2024, examined seasonal patterns of pest and disease occurrence in Kilombero and Kagera sugarcane plantations and assessed crop-specific susceptibility to guide climate-responsive management strategies. A mixed-methods approach combined structured surveys with 302 farmers, eight focus group discussions, ten key informant interviews, and field observations. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Chi-square tests, with Cramer’s V estimating effect sizes. Ratoon crops showed higher disease burdens than first crops, with smut, Yellow Sugarcane Aphids (YSA), Ratoon Stunt Disease (RSD), and wilt most frequent. Among ratoon crops, 29.1% of responses indicated very high severity and 34.9% medium severity, while first crops had lower proportions (χ 2 = 12.34–10.87, p < 0.05, Cramer’s V = 0.18–0.22). Stems were the most affected part, with high to very high disease levels in over 40% of responses. Seasonal patterns showed aphids dominating the dry season, while white grubs and whiteflies were more frequent in the rainy season (χ 2 = 142.3, p < 0.001, Cramer’s V = 0.39). Smut remained the leading disease across both seasons (109 dry, 65 rainy), with significant variation between periods (χ 2 = 98.7, p < 0.001, Cramer’s V = 0.41). These findings indicate that climate variability drives shifts in pest and disease prevalence, with ratoon crops and stems particularly susceptible. Results emphasize the value of integrating farmer observations, seasonal monitoring, and adaptive management to strengthen sustainable sugarcane production.