Environmental Impact Assessment of Mid and Downstream Gas Distribution Debacle: Navigating Diverse Complex Geological Terrain for An Eco-Friendly, Clean and Lower Carbon Society, Nigeria

Abstract

Diverse, complex and rugged Geological terrains in Nigeria has been a major hindrance to gas distribution for economic growth. The study aimed to diagnose critical steps revolving around the Mid and Downstream to get gas and its infrastructures across the huge population of about 233 million inhabitants. With 210 TCF reserve deposit, Nigeria and Africa will need harness this potential for robust economic collaboration. A target to increase the current 7.18bcfd to 12.7bcfd gas production by 2030 is in the pipeline. A total 61.58% refinery utilization was recorded between Q1 and Q3 of 2025 with Aradel, (1,000bpd), Waltersmith (5,000bpd), Duport (2500bpd), Dangote (650,000bpd) at a total 1,195,000 barrels per day crude oil processing capacity. Ajaokuta-Kano-Kaduna (AKK) and Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben ie OB3 gas pipelines among several others are at advanced stages of completion for gas distribution. Existing gas pipelines across the Nigerian landscape revealed 32%, 26% and 13% across South-west, south-south and South-east respectively with virtually no sign of similar pipeline in the northern axis. CNG recorded just 0.5% utilization rate in 2025 (southern area) with an ambitious target of scaling up to 9.1% and 21% utilization rate by 2027 and 2030 respectively with an upcoming integrated 500 CNG retail outlets. LPG adoption and utilization increased on a year-on-year basis by 51.58%. About 300mmscf/d of gas goes into production of 65% of Nigeria’s 111Kw/cap of electricity expected to triple soon. This energy study forecasts that natural gas will be relevant beyond 2060 as a major source of energy, existing side by side with other forms of energy sources with solar energy serving as veritable energy mix to the tune of 25% compared to the current status of less than 12%. With upstream scalability, midstream connectivity and downstream certainty, gas production will not only surge in volume but advance a clean, eco-friendly society and ignite the new impetus that will enhance Nigeria’s industrialization agenda.