review · Ecology Letters
A meta-analysis of 109 experimental warming studies across seven continents evaluates how climate change influences plant litter decomposition. Overall, warming does not significantly alter decomposition at a global scale. A significant increase in decomposition requires a temperature rise of at least 5.2 degrees. Environmental context plays a key moderating role: warming reduces decomposition rates in warm, dry environments, whilst causing a slight, non-significant increase in colder regions. This trend is notable given recent warming at high latitudes where significant terrestrial carbon resides. Additionally, vegetation shifts towards plants with lower litter quality may increase sensitivity to warming, accelerating carbon release and curbing soil organic matter accumulation. The findings demonstrate that context-specific factors, such as local moisture, temperature, and litter traits, must be integrated to forecast warming effects on ecosystems accurately.
Understanding how plant litter decomposes under rising temperatures is critical for projecting global carbon cycles. Because vast amounts of carbon are stored in colder regions, shifts in decomposition rates directly affect how much carbon remains trapped in soil versus entering the atmosphere, shaping future climate projections.
The abstract does not indicate a direct commercial application pathway, as it represents early-stage basic ecological research. However, the identified thresholds and environmental relationships could inform organisations developing climate risk models, ecosystem monitoring software, or soil carbon accounting frameworks.
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Empirical studies worldwide show that warming has variable effects on plant litter decomposition, leaving the overall impact of climate change on decomposition uncertain. We conducted a meta-analysis of 109 experimental warming studies across seven continents, using natural and standardised plant material, to assess the overarching effect of warming on litter decomposition and identify potential moderating factors. We determined that at least 5.2° of warming is required for a significant increase in decomposition. Overall, warming did not have a significant effect on decomposition at a global scale. However, we found that warming reduced decomposition in warmer, low-moisture areas, while it slightly increased decomposition in colder regions, although this increase was not significant. This is particularly relevant given the past decade's global warming trend at higher latitudes where a large proportion of terrestrial carbon is stored. Future changes in vegetation towards plants with lower litter quality, which we show were likely to be more sensitive to warming, could increase carbon release and reduce the amount of organic matter building up in the soil. Our findings highlight how the interplay between warming, environmental conditions, and litter characteristics improves predictions of warming's impact on ecosystem processes, emphasising the importance of considering context-specific factors.
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DOI: 10.1111/ele.70026
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