Enhancing Bitcoin price forecasting: a comparative analysis of advanced time series models with hyperparameter optimization

Abstract

This paper evaluates state-of-the-art time series forecasting to predict next day Bitcoin prices via distinct architectures and methodologies in a real-time setting. We study six advanced models, KAN, TimesNet, NBEATS, NHITS, PatchTST and BiTCN, applied to a Jan 1, 2023, to Dec 1, 2024. We simulate real world applications via a rolling forecast strategy, in which we predict daily prices from the most recent data. The dataset consists of daily Bitcoin closing prices and data preprocessing and integrity checks for its constituent data. Additionally, rigorous accuracy and reliability were investigated using performance metrics such as the MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R². NBEATS and NHITS were the top performers, achieving an R² score of 0.967, explaining complex patterns in volatile cryptocurrency data. The specific importance of model architecture and further hyperparameter optimization in achieving higher forecasting accuracy is highlighted in this study. The practical implications of these findings for the advancement of time series forecasting in financial markets are leveraged here, where timely and accurate forecasts are critical.