Energy Demand Projections for Urban Household Cooking in Ethiopia from 2022-2050: a MAED-Based Approach

Abstract

Urbanization in Ethiopia is expected to significantly influence future household energy demand, particularly for cooking, which remains dominated by traditional biomass fuels. Despite urban electrification levels exceeding 90%, electricity accounts for only about 1.5% of cooking energy use, highlighting a critical gap between access and adoption of clean energy services. This study applies the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to project urban household final energy demand for cooking in Ethiopia over the period 2022 to 2050, consistent with long-term development and energy planning frameworks. The analysis considers three scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Efficiency (Modern Biomass), and Clean Cooking. Demand projections incorporate key drivers including population growth, urbanization, household size, technology efficiency, and fuel substitution patterns. Results indicate that under BAU conditions, final energy demand for urban household cooking nearly doubles by 2050. In contrast, the Clean Cooking scenario, characterized by a large-scale transition from traditional biomass to electric cooking, reduces final energy demand by approximately 71% relative to BAU. The Efficiency scenario achieves a moderate reduction of about 29.9%. The results highlight the critical role of end-use efficiency and fuel switching in shaping long-term urban household energy demand and reduction of CO2 emission up to 70.8% by 2050. The study demonstrates how MAED can support evidence-based policy analysis for clean cooking transitions and integrated energy planning, contributing to sustainable development objectives under Ethiopia’s Vision 2050.