energy demand and Supply aggregation for ECOWAS interconnected network

Abstract

The Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) contains 15 states in which the electricity supply is unevenly distributed. Few States have their autonomous production factories to supply their population while others sign contract with their neighbors to supply them with electricity. For that reason, the West African Power Pool (WAPP) is created in order to set up a uniform transport network for the region and give way to uniform electricity market. By so doing, the gap between the supply and demand becomes regional and some states have to meet some requirements to coop up with the new electricity market. This work analyses aggregation between the electricity supply and demand for the whole region for the period of height (8) years (2024–2032). Reliable forecasting of peak demand is essential for the planning of all these works. The PROPHET Facebook and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting models were compared for peak demand forecasting in the interconnected grid. The PROPHET model is the best, with a low root mean square error (RMSE 1.225 GW), a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, 3.1%) and a peak of 13.62GW in 2032. The electricity supply is based on the ECOWAS Revised Master Plan for Electric Power Generation and Transmission which contains all the capacities (including renewable energy) to be installed during the same period. The results show that if all the project are realized, the demand and supply balance will be met. But this requires enormous resources, both human and economic.