article · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluated energy and industry transitions across East Africa using a Power-to-X framework. Examining scenarios with varying carbon pricing policies showed that the most cost-effective path relies heavily on renewable energy. Under ambitious climate policies, low-cost electricity from solar photovoltaics and wind power could reach 13 to 17 euros per megawatt-hour by 2050, matching delayed policy costs at 16 euros per megawatt-hour while avoiding the 41 euros per megawatt-hour cost of the status quo. Broad electrification allows emerging economies to bypass fossil fuels and foster long-term industrialisation. For sectors that are difficult to electrify directly, synthetic fuels and chemicals produced through Power-to-X can supply between 21 and 77 per cent of fuel and chemical demands, supplemented by bioenergy and decreasing reliance on fossil fuels.
Most transition research focuses exclusively on electricity grids in the Global North. This study demonstrates that East African nations can leapfrog fossil fuel dependency across both power and heavy industry. Achieving low-cost renewable generation and adopting Power-to-X solutions provides an economically viable blueprint for industrialisation while meeting long-term decarbonisation goals.
This modelling research represents early-stage strategic planning rather than near-market deployment. It provides a techno-economic framework that can inform infrastructure planners, development financiers, and industrial policymakers. The findings point to future commercial opportunities for renewable power developers, grid operators, and manufacturers of synthetic e-fuels and e-chemicals targeting hard-to-decarbonise industrial sectors in East Africa.
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Transitioning from fossil fuels is critical for Africa's climate and renewable energy goals, yet energy system-wide transition research in Africa is limited, with most studies focusing on the power sector. Power-to-X technologies offer pathways for deep defossilisation of hard-to-electrify sectors, yet region-specific analyses remain scarce, as existing literature is mainly concentrated in the Global North, particularly Europe. This study addresses the gap though detailed energy-industry system analyses within a Power-to-X framework, using a robust techno-economic approach for East Africa under macroeconomics assumptions that support industrialisation and defossilisation. Three scenarios are examined, including the current policy (no CO 2 pricing, status quo), delayed policy (CO 2 pricing from 2035, moderately ambitious), and best policy (CO 2 pricing, highly ambitious), enabling assessment of various energy futures. Comparing scenario outcomes reveals that the cost-effective pathway forward relies primarily on renewable energy. Low-cost renewable electricity, mainly from solar photovoltaics and wind power at 13–17 €/MWh by 2050, has the potential to transform the energy-industry landscape of emerging economies in East Africa. Electricity generation is at cost parity with the Delayed Policy Scenario at 16 €/MWh, while the Current Policy Scenario results in significantly higher cost of 41 €/MWh. Comprehensive electrification presents a cost-effective opportunity to bypass fossil fuel dependence and drive long-term economic development. e-Fuels and e-chemicals meet East Africa's hard-to-electrify demands, supplying 21-77% of fuel and chemical demand, compared with 14-33% from bioenergy and 0-65% from fossil fuels. Research on this topic in Africa requires further study to inform investment strategies and policy frameworks that support carbon-neutral industrialisation.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2026.117405
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