Emerging risk factors affecting real estate development delivery in Accra, Ghana

Abstract

Introduction This study examined emerging risk factors affecting real estate development delivery in Accra, Ghana, focusing on economic, institutional, market, and environmental risks. The study was motivated by the increasing complexity of real estate development environments in emerging economies, where project performance is shaped by interconnected structural uncertainties beyond traditional construction risks. Methods A quantitative research design was adopted. Data were collected from 98 real estate development and construction professionals, including architects, civil engineers, quantity surveyors, project managers, contractors, and estate surveyors, using structured questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, exploratory factor analysis, Spearman correlation, one-sample mean tests, and multiple regression analysis. Results The findings showed institutional risks were the most critical, indicating governance and regulatory inefficiencies are the main challenges in Ghana’s real estate sector, followed by economic, market, and environmental risks which also contribute to uncertainty. Respondents rated all risk dimensions above the neutral midpoint, showing emerging risks are widely perceived as significant and persistent, while development performance was rated below the midpoint, indicating weak outcomes. One-sample tests confirmed risk levels are higher than expectations, while performance is lower. Factor analysis showed risks form a single interconnected system rather than independent factors. Correlation results indicated that higher risk levels are strongly associated with lower development performance. Regression analysis confirmed all risk dimensions significantly reduce performance, with institutional risk having the strongest effect. Discussion The study concludes that emerging risks operate as an integrated systemic structure that significantly constrains real estate development delivery performance in Ghana.