article · Scientific Reports
An empirical assessment evaluates the drivers of ecological sustainability in Somalia using annual records from 1990 to 2020. The evaluation relies on the Load Capacity Factor, which reflects the balance between biocapacity and ecological demand, alongside econometric techniques including ARDL bounds testing, FMOLS, DOLS, and the Toda-Yamamoto causality framework. The analysis demonstrates that globalisation weakens ecological capacity in both the short and long run, while water stress produces significant adverse long-run impacts. In contrast, institutional quality, measured through government stability, and human capital development, measured via secondary school-age populations, show positive long-term associations with the Load Capacity Factor. Causal testing confirms that globalisation, water stress, institutions, and education predict shifts in ecological capacity, with feedback directed mainly towards globalisation. Consequently, environmental stability depends heavily on strengthening governance, improving water management, and investing in human capital.
Balancing economic development with natural resource preservation is a crucial challenge in fragile environments. This research shows that opening up to international markets and dealing with water scarcity can degrade ecological reserves unless matched by stable governance and educational investment. The insights help planners design integrated environmental and development strategies.
The abstract outlines macroeconomic and environmental econometric analysis rather than a product or operational technology, providing no basis for direct commercialisation pathways. The findings primarily serve policymakers, international development organisations, and public water resource managers seeking evidence to guide regulatory frameworks, institutional stability initiatives, and environmental governance.
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This study empirically examines the determinants of ecological sustainability in Somalia by analysing the relationships among globalization, water stress, institutional quality, and human capital using annual data from 1990 to 2020. The Load Capacity Factor (LCF), which captures the balance between biocapacity and ecological demand, is employed as the principal measure of ecological sustainability. ARDL bounds testing is used to assess cointegration, while Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) validate the long-run estimates, and the Toda–Yamamoto procedure examines predictive causality. The results indicate that globalization reduces Somalia’s LCF in both the short and long run, whereas water stress has a significant adverse effect in the long run. Conversely, institutional quality, proxied by the ICRG Government Stability indicator, and human capital, represented by the population of official secondary-school age for both sexes, have positive and statistically significant long-run associations with the LCF. The causality results further show that globalization, water stress, institutional quality, and human capital predict changes in the LCF, while feedback from the LCF is primarily observed toward globalization. Overall, Somalia’s ecological sustainability is constrained by water stress, institutional fragility, and environmentally unsustainable forms of global integration. The findings support a sequenced policy agenda that reconciles globalization with environmental stewardship, strengthens water-resource governance, promotes institutional development, and expands investment in human-capital formation.
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DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-69829-0
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